Long-term interest rates rise amid persistent pricing conflicts, with both energy prices and fiscal burdens escalating

(1) Over the past two weeks, Iran has consistently launched attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and expanded the scope of conflict to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait via Yemen’s Houthi forces, further constricting Saudi Arabia’s alternative export route that bypasses the Red Sea. Geopolitical risks are escalating step by step. (2) As US policy shifts its focus from military and diplomatic actions to economic pressure, Iran is using the window created by reduced US military intervention to accelerate its preparations for war. The market is concerned that the next step may involve direct attacks on US military bases and energy facilities in the region, potentially causing a broader supply disruption. (3) Although the US claims the strait remains open and under its control, both vessel traffic and freight volumes have significantly declined. The Brent crude oil near-month contract broke through the $90 per barrel resistance level on Monday, and refined product prices have risen even more sharply, with crack spreads once again approaching yearly and historical extreme levels. (4) The market is repricing the macroeconomic impact of the conflict lasting far longer than expected. The current rise in global long-term bond yields reflects not only increased inflation risk premiums but also growing expectations that governments may expand fiscal spending to protect businesses and households from the shock of high energy prices.