Gold Up 10% in August — Can Fed Minutes Unlock $4,450?

📊 Gold just had its best week since January.

After plunging roughly 18% from its January record near $5,600, the metal has roared back to the $4,400 area — up about 10% this month alone. The selloff is over. The question now is whether the next leg higher can break through.

🌍 Two catalysts converge this week.

First, Fed minutes from the July 28-29 meeting drop on Wednesday, August 19. Markets have already slashed September rate-hike odds to roughly 40% after July nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 — a 100K+ miss versus expectations for a gain of 80,000. Second, Jackson Hole looms August 27-29, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote as chair. Both events could either fuel or stall gold's momentum.

Meanwhile, the Middle East remains a live risk premium. Israel struck Lebanon over the weekend, and Trump is preparing new sanctions on Iran. China's central bank added approximately 20 tonnes of gold in July — its 21st consecutive month of purchases. The structural bid underneath gold hasn't gone anywhere.

📈 On the daily chart, gold bottomed after its sharp correction from the January highs and has since reclaimed its short- and medium-term moving averages. The MA structure is now turning higher.

The key breakout came when gold pushed through the previous moving-average resistance cluster at $4,135-$4,158. That zone has flipped from resistance into support. More importantly, gold is holding above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,343 — the level that now acts as the primary bullish pivot.

This isn't a V-shaped chase. Gold has been consolidating near the highs after the breakout, which is constructive price action. The market is using time to absorb profit-taking while maintaining its elevated range.

Fibonacci support framework:

• $4,343 (78.6%) — primary bullish pivot

• $4,260 (61.8%) — secondary support

• $4,202 (50%) — momentum warning zone

• $4,145-$4,158 (38.2% + MA cluster) — medium-term confluence

As long as gold holds above $4,343, the daily structure favors continuation over reversal.

⚠️ The flip side: gold is approaching near-term resistance at $4,436-$4,450, marked by recent swing highs and a psychologically significant round number. If price repeatedly fails to clear $4,450 and drops back below $4,343, the setup weakens and a deeper retracement toward $4,260 becomes the more likely path.

The Fed minutes cut both ways. Dovish minutes reinforce the lower-rate narrative and support gold. But if the minutes reveal a more hawkish tone than the market currently prices, the dollar could bounce and pressure gold back toward support.

🎯 My read: the broader bias stays bullish as long as $4,343 holds. The setup favors buying pullbacks into support rather than chasing strength at resistance.

Bullish framework:

• Primary support: $4,343-$4,330

• Invalidation: sustained daily break below $4,202

• First target: $4,436-$4,450

• Breakout targets: $4,500, then $4,550-$4,600

A confirmed daily close above $4,450 — especially if fueled by dovish Fed minutes — would signal the next leg higher is underway. Until then, patience on pullbacks is the better trade.